In the most conservative case, we’re looking at over 30 000 jobs created per year in the solar PV industry
Job creation is one of the most important considerations for the South African economy. Sitting at around 29%, unemployment is a serious hindrance to the South African economy. The creation of solar PV systems for the government and private clients brings down costs and increases energy reliability, bolstering profitability and growing businesses. However, the question of how many jobs the PV industry creates has been a hot topic for several years.
A new study, completed by the CSIR and commissioned by the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) with sponsorship from SOLA, has set out to look at just how many jobs solar PV has created in South Africa so far, and what we can expect from the industry in the future.
Measuring jobs in the PV sector is tricky, because of the variability of jobs throughout the life-cycle of each plant. Typically, both large-scale and embedded generation plants will have quite a lot of employment during the construction phase, which taper off when the plant goes into Operation & Maintenance (O&M). However, these jobs last the lifetime of the plant, and thus are cumulative over time.
How are solar jobs measured?
There’s been much discussion about how to measure jobs in the solar PV sector, which has not had a unified approach or metric, resulting in confusion about the numbers of jobs created by the industry. As such, the first step in the research was coming up with a useful way to measure jobs, particularly those in the solar PV sector that tend to undulate based on construction times.
Based on an international literature review and experiences in other survey approaches, the CSIR used “Full Time Equivalent” (FTE) as a metric to measure jobs. A FTE job looks at the amount of time that a worker spends at a job compared to a full time employee. For example, if an employee only works half-time, their FTE score would be 0.5. As a result, the metrics represented by FTE show what the equivalent full-time employment would be per annum for a particular job.
In addition, the CSIR used a standardised unit output of MW per annum in order to be able to compare jobs across the value chain. As such, the jobs in the analysis and in the future scenario modelling are represented FTE jobs per MW per annum. This allows the job statistics to be comparable across different sectors and in relation to other forms of employment creation, and takes a conservative view on estimating jobs.
The predicted scenarios for job creation in the solar PV industry in South Africa
The report looked at historical data in order to create a model to predict future employment scenarios in the sector. It modelled three different scenarios, the IRP 2019 scenario, the accelerated case scenario, and the high road scenario.
- The IRP 2019 scenario
This scenario looks purely at the jobs resulting from the Integrated Resources Plan 2019 by the South African Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. In this scenario, the solar PV industry would create between 33 000 – 35 000 jobs per year from 2022 and 2030, but there would be little consistency and large variations between years.
- The accelerated scenario
This scenario takes into consideration the growth of the market outside of the IRP guidelines, and assumes that utility scale solar PV will be built in addition to embedded generation, owing to the government’s intention to allow more embedded generation to plug the energy supply gap in the short term. In this scenario, an initial spike in job creation of 51 580 FTE jobs will be created during 2022, followed by a dip back to 31 131 FTE jobs in 2023 and climbing to consistently to 37 975 jobs by 2030.
- The high-road scenario
In this scenario, the predicted import of solar modules is expected to increase, in addition to the building of both Utility and embedded generation solar PV facilities, which continue to grow post-2022. In this scenario, jobs are expected to bounce up in 2022 to 53 422 FTE jobs, and return to 33 972 in 2023, growing steadily to 39 817 FTE jobs in 2030.
What does this mean for the sector?
The jobs report paints a picture of what the expected job creation trajectories will look like. The research highlights the fact that the halting of renewable energy procurement in 2015 was devastating to the jobs in the sector, but has not prevented it from recovering in the recent years. There are some important aspects to consider in order to ensure the maximum job creation:
- O&M jobs are the most sustainable, as they run throughout the lifetime of each PV facility (usually around 20 – 25 years). They have the potential to create substantial, lasting job opportunities in the sector.
- Localising PV component manufacturing could have a significant effect on the growth of PV-sector jobs in South Africa, particularly if there is a clear path to how much the sector will grow each year.
- The embedded generation market is a very important player in the creation of PV jobs, but has been hindered by policy uncertainty.
Overall, the report shows that whichever scenario ends up playing out, there is likely to be significant growth of solar PV jobs in the coming years.
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